Essential upgrades: On upgrades to India’s statistical databases

The government has, in recent months, implemented several long-overdue but welcome upgrades to India’s statistical databases. Wide-ranging, they cover the way the country measures Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, and price changes at the retail, wholesale, and producer levels. These updates have not only made India’s key economic statistics more representative of reality, but have also brought them in line with international best practices. The most basic change across all indices has been the updating of base years. Until recently, the base years for GDP, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) were either 2011 or 2012. As such, these measures were significantly outdated and less reflective of reality with each passing year. In February, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the new series of national accounts data, including GDP, with a base year of 2022-23. The new series incorporates methodological improvements and new data sources, making it more granular and robust. Some of these, such as the double-deflator approach, have long been demanded by statisticians and international bodies, including the IMF.

Similarly, MoSPI had in February also released the new series of the CPI with an updated base year of 2024, a more inclusive basket of items measured, and more accurate weightages. This has enabled a more realistic reading of retail inflation, a key metric in interest-rate decisions. In early June, MoSPI then released the new series of the IIP as well. The base year was updated to 2022-23 and the index’s data collection was strengthened. This, too, eventually feeds into more accurate GDP data. The other factor to be highlighted is that the data upgrades have not been limited to just MoSPI. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry also updated its WPI, releasing the new series on Monday. A more accurate WPI and CPI yield a more accurate GDP deflator, which strengthens the way that statisticians derive real GDP growth after having adjusted for inflation. The Commerce Ministry also released a new Producer Price Index (PPI), which is to replace the WPI in five years. A PPI is the standard among developed economies and provides more information about both goods and service price levels at the producer stage. With all these, the IMF is sure to improve the recurring ‘C’ grade it has given India’s national accounts data. These, it is hoped, will also be capped off by a time-bound release of the new Census with no further delays.